Periodisation of Poland’s economy 2007–2019

Authors

  • Małgorzata Markowska Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wrocławiu https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4879-0112
  • Andrzej Sokołowski Collegium Humanum – Warsaw Management University
  • Jerzy Hausner Fundacja GAP

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24917/20801653.371.2

Keywords:

cluster analysis, multidimentional time series, periodization, Poland’s economy

Abstract

In each country, in the economy observed over long periods of time, usually we can find some developmental phases due to socioeconomic changes, globalization, political decisions, and unexpected events. The identification of such phases, their duration, turning points in the trends of macroeconomic indicators, and some other early signals comprise interesting goals for research. The aim of this paper is to find homogeneous phases in the economic development of Poland from 2007-2019. Eight monthly variables were used, including data on labour markets, salaries, inflation, manufacturing, retail sales, exports, and the overall business climate. This multidimentional time-series dataset was partitioned using cluster analysis methods, namely Ward’s agglomerative method and k-means. Seven sub-periods have been found and they are illustrated by segmented trends and displayed as models and graphs. Economic interpretation of the developments in the phases is explained and interpreted below. Looking at the periods that have been found, one can consider the quality of economic and political decisions, both within the world in general and the European economic situation. This paper presents original periodisation of Poland’s economy and is based on real monthly data with the use of a clustering approach to multidimensional time series.

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Author Biographies

Małgorzata Markowska, Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wrocławiu

Małgorzata Markowska, is an associate professor at the Regional Economics Chair of Wrocław University of Economics and Business. She is a member of Polish Classification Society and Regional Studies Association. Her research deals with econometric measurement, evaluation, variability and dynamics of development, competitiveness, knowledge-​­based economy, smart specializations, convergence and innovativeness in European regional space. As an author or co-​­author she published more than 110 scientific papers and 25 chapters in books, and recently her own dissertation “Dynamic Taxonomy of Regions’ Innovativeness.” She took part in 12 scientific projects financed by Polish National Centre of Science and European Union, and in projects for governmental, local administration and business units.

Andrzej Sokołowski, Collegium Humanum – Warsaw Management University

Andrzej Sokołowski, is a Professor of Statistics at the Collegium Humanum – Warsaw University of Management. His scientific activity is concentrated on application of statistical methods in such fields as economics and management, medicine, sports, politics and music. In theoretical statistics he is interested in mathematical statistics, multivariate analysis and medical statistics. He is an author of more than 60 chapters in books and monographs, 160 scientific papers and 150 contribution at conferences. For three terms he was President the Polish Classification Society and for more than twenty years he is a member of International Federation of Classification Societies Council.

Jerzy Hausner, Fundacja GAP

Jerzy Hausner, Professor of Economics, politician and economist. In the years 2001–2005, Member of Parliament of the 4th term and a Minister in the governments of L. Miller and M. Belka, in the years 2003–2005, the Vice-​­Prime Minister of the Government, a member of the Monetary Policy Council in the 2010–2016 term. Member of the Polish Economic Society and the Polish Committee for UNESCO, the Chairman of the Board of the Foundation of Economy and Public Administration. Creator of the concept of the International Congress of the Economy of Values – Open Eyes Economy Summit, Chairman of the Programme Council of the Congress.

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Published

2023-03-31

How to Cite

Markowska, M., Sokołowski, A., & Hausner, J. (2023). Periodisation of Poland’s economy 2007–2019. Studies of the Industrial Geography Commission of the Polish Geographical Society, 37(1), 26–45. https://doi.org/10.24917/20801653.371.2

Issue

Vol. 37 No. 1 (2023): The impact of the crisis on the functioning of enterprises and the transformation of spatial systems

Section

Articles

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